Although it's natural for development officers to feel concerned about the outlook for giving during economic downturns, four decades of history suggest that the nation's commitment to philanthropy will weather the latest storm. Nelson Lees, senior consultant for Marts & Lundy, recently reached this conclusion after reviewing economic and financial trends and how they affected giving to education, health and arts, culture and the humanities over nearly 40 years.

Drawing from a variety of sources, such as Giving USA 2007 and his own studies on campaign metrics, Lees analyzed what happens to giving during economic slowdowns linked to stock market declines from 1969 to 2006.

...Four decades of history suggest that the nation's commitment to philanthropy will weather the latest storm.

In the field of education, giving has sometimes leveled off, and twice -- in 1975 and 2002 --declined slightly for a year. Otherwise, he writes, "It has shown remarkable resiliency and persistent growth over 40 years despite seven periods of stock market decline."

Similarly, in giving to arts, culture and the humanities, Lees observes: "Giving showed strong growth through 1994 with two decreases not correlated with economic downturns. It then surged through 2001 before leveling off." Of the three decreases since 1994, two might be correlated with economic downturns. Lees found the same trend in the field of health.

Typically, there are two truisms that apply to any capital campaign, according to Lees. "The first is, you're never ready" to launch, he says. "The question is how 'unready' can you be and still make a go of it?"

The second truism is that there never seems to be a good time to launch, Lees says. "If the market is up, it's going to come down. If it's down, it's going to go down further."

But if an organization is ready to start a capital giving campaign, a slumping economy shouldn't stop it. "Regardless of all the recessions, despite all of the downturns that have occurred, giving has marched relentlessly upward, with just an occasional leveling, or a very, very occasional slight dip," Lees concludes. He also looked at what happened to 26 campaigns ranging in size from $11 million to $2 billion that were launched during the sharp market downturn of 2000, 2001 and 2002: one fell slightly short, one just hit its goal, and 24 exceeded their goals by an average of 15 percent.

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